McLaren are expecting a fiercely competitive battle for victory at the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with the reigning constructors’ champions predicting that Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull will all be capable of challenging them around the demanding streets of Baku.
The team will arrive at the Baku City Circuit with another package of aerodynamic upgrades for the MCL40 as they look to continue the significant improvement in performance that has brought them back into regular contention for Formula 1 victories.
McLaren failed to win any of the opening 10 Grands Prix of the season, but their fortunes have changed dramatically during the recent run of races. Lando Norris has claimed three pole positions across the last four rounds and converted two of those opportunities into victories, demonstrating the progress made with the MCL40.
Norris also came close to another victory at the previous round in Madrid.
After starting from pole position, the British driver had been fighting at the front before the timing of a Virtual Safety Car disrupted McLaren’s strategy. Norris eventually finished third, while team mate Oscar Piastri could only manage eighth after suffering early front wing damage.
McLaren will now attempt to build on that pace with another set of developments in Azerbaijan.
The team confirmed that new components designed to improve the MCL40’s aerodynamic performance will be evaluated during practice before final decisions are made regarding the car’s qualifying and race configuration.
McLaren will also bring back its distinctive H Wing, which made its debut at Monza but was not used in Madrid. The device is intended to assist with drag reduction, making Baku’s extraordinary high speed layout particularly suitable for its return.
Baku presents one of the most unusual engineering challenges on the Formula 1 calendar.
The circuit combines a 2.2-kilometre main straight with extremely slow corners and the famously narrow castle section. Teams therefore need to find a compromise between reducing drag for straight line speed and maintaining enough aerodynamic performance to give drivers confidence through the technical sections.
McLaren chief technical officer and chief designer Rob Marshall believes those contrasting characteristics could create one of the closest battles of the season.
Marshall said McLaren expects all four leading teams to have the potential to win in Azerbaijan, while also warning that the chasing teams are becoming increasingly competitive.
Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren have each demonstrated different strengths during the season, and Baku’s unusual combination of low-speed corners and very long straights could prevent any single team from holding a clear advantage.
Energy deployment will also be particularly important.
The cars spend a long period at full throttle before arriving at the heavy braking zone for Turn 1. Managing electrical energy efficiently while ensuring the brakes and tyres remain within their ideal operating windows will be another major challenge for engineers and drivers.
Marshall also highlighted the unforgiving nature of the street circuit.
The walls sit extremely close to the racing line in several sections, particularly around the castle complex. A small mistake can therefore result in significant damage, potentially costing a driver valuable practice time and forcing teams to divert resources towards repairs rather than performance improvements.
For McLaren, continuing development of the MCL40 remains important despite attention gradually beginning to shift towards the 2027 car.
Technical director Neil Houldey had previously indicated that Baku could feature a more substantial update package after a series of smaller developments earlier in the season. McLaren also believes lessons learned from improving the current car can remain useful because of the relative regulatory continuity heading into next season.
Norris’ recent form gives the team additional reason for optimism.
Three poles from four races demonstrate that McLaren have found considerable qualifying performance, while two victories during the same period suggest that the team’s improvements are translating into stronger race pace as well.
Piastri also has positive memories of Azerbaijan.
The Australian won the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, passing Charles Leclerc during a memorable battle before holding the Ferrari driver behind him to secure victory. Norris recovered from 15th on the grid to finish fourth that day as McLaren moved to the top of the constructors’ standings.
The circumstances are very different in 2026, but Piastri’s previous success around the circuit gives McLaren useful experience as they prepare for another potentially unpredictable race.
Mercedes remain the championship benchmark this season, with Kimi Antonelli leading the Drivers’ Championship and the team holding a commanding position in the constructors’ standings. That means McLaren’s immediate objective is increasingly focused on individual race victories and continuing the development momentum that has transformed their season.
Ferrari and Red Bull will also be expected to feature strongly, particularly given the importance of straight-line efficiency around Baku.
With four major teams potentially capable of fighting at the front, qualifying could become especially important. Starting near the front reduces the risk of being caught in traffic through the narrow sections, although Baku’s huge main straight traditionally provides opportunities for overtaking and strategic variation.
The 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix will take place on Saturday, September 26, rather than the traditional Sunday race day. Practice begins on Thursday, with qualifying scheduled for Friday before the race itself.
McLaren arrive in Azerbaijan with confidence, improving form and another collection of upgrades ready for evaluation.
But Baku’s unique demands mean performance at previous circuits offers no guarantees.
If McLaren’s prediction proves correct, Formula 1 fans could be set for a genuine four team battle between McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull on one of the championship’s most unpredictable street circuits.
