Max Verstappen may no longer be at the centre of the 2026 Formula 1 title fight, but the Red Bull driver could still have a major influence on whether Kimi Antonelli or George Russell ends the season as world champion.
With eight rounds remaining, the Drivers’ Championship has increasingly developed into an intra Mercedes contest. Antonelli leads the standings with 302 points, while Russell sits second on 236 a gap of 66 points following Russell’s victory at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Verstappen is sixth on 163 points, leaving him 139 points behind Antonelli. With a maximum of 208 points still available across the remaining Grands Prix and Singapore Sprint, he remains mathematically within reach, but Red Bull’s inconsistent form means his more immediate influence may come from taking valuable points away from the two Mercedes contenders.
That possibility became particularly clear in Baku.
Russell controlled much of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix after starting from pole, but Verstappen emerged as a serious threat during the closing stages. Following two Safety Car periods, the four time world champion attacked relentlessly and crossed the line only 0.196 seconds behind Russell. Antonelli, meanwhile, recovered from a Q1 crash and 16th on the grid to finish fifth.
The result reduced Antonelli’s championship advantage from 81 points to 66.
If Verstappen can regularly position himself between the two Mercedes drivers over the remaining races, similar swings could become increasingly important.
A race in which Russell wins, Verstappen finishes second and Antonelli comes home further down the order would help Russell significantly. Equally, if Verstappen beats Russell on a weekend when Antonelli wins, the Red Bull driver would effectively help the championship leader protect or extend his advantage.
That makes Verstappen a potentially decisive third party in what otherwise appears to be a Mercedes title duel.
Red Bull finally showing stronger form
For much of 2026, Red Bull have lacked the consistency needed to challenge Mercedes across every type of circuit.
Verstappen has not won a Grand Prix this season, something particularly unusual given that he has recorded at least one victory in every campaign since 2016.
Yet recent results suggest the RB22 is becoming increasingly competitive.
Verstappen has collected seven podium finishes this season, with five coming across the last six rounds. Red Bull also introduced its final major upgrade package of the year in Azerbaijan, featuring revisions to the floor body, diffuser and sidepods.
Baku provided encouraging evidence.
Verstappen finished second while returning team mate Isack Hadjar took third, marking the first time in more than two years that both Red Bull drivers had stood on the same Grand Prix podium.
Team principal Laurent Mekies acknowledged that Baku suited the car particularly well but said the performance gave Red Bull hope that there would be further opportunities to challenge before the season ends.
The next question is whether those improvements translate to more conventional circuits.
Sepang will provide an important test
Formula 1 now heads to the Sepang International Circuit, which returns to the calendar as the venue for this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia.
Unlike Baku, Sepang features sweeping medium and high speed corners that place much greater emphasis on aerodynamic performance and tyre management.
That makes it an important test of Red Bull’s upgraded car.
Tyre degradation has been one of the RB22’s recurring weaknesses during 2026. If the latest package has improved that area, Verstappen could become a much more regular presence alongside the Mercedes drivers during the championship run-in.
Mercedes themselves are also bringing a major upgrade to Malaysia, so Red Bull’s relative position remains uncertain.
Verstappen acknowledged that a successful Mercedes improvement would make winning even harder but insisted he would attack whenever an opportunity appeared.
That attitude could matter enormously to Antonelli and Russell.
Neither Mercedes driver can simply assume Verstappen will stay out of their championship battle.
Verstappen has nothing to protect
The psychological situation is also different for Verstappen.
Antonelli and Russell must constantly consider the championship consequences of contact, mistakes or unnecessary risks. Verstappen has considerably less to lose in individual wheel to wheel battles.
That could make starts, restarts and strategic fights particularly uncomfortable for the Mercedes pair.
It is a situation with historical precedent.
During the closing stages of the 2016 championship battle between Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton, a teenage Verstappen frequently found himself racing the Mercedes drivers. Rosberg later recalled how difficult it was having Verstappen around while simultaneously trying to protect his championship position.
Ten years later, Verstappen could occupy a similar role.
The difference is that he is now a four time world champion with vastly more experience and one of the strongest wheel to wheel reputations on the grid.
Weather could create another opportunity
Another unpredictable factor is rain.
The 2026 season has yet to produce a wet qualifying session or Grand Prix, but several of the remaining races could potentially feature changing conditions.
Verstappen has repeatedly demonstrated his ability in wet weather throughout his career.
If rain creates a mixed up race, Red Bull may not need the outright fastest car to challenge Mercedes. Driver confidence, tyre timing and strategic decisions become considerably more important in those circumstances.
For Antonelli and Russell, that would introduce another layer of risk into an already complicated championship battle.
Las Vegas and Mexico could suit Red Bull
Some remaining circuits could also provide Verstappen with realistic opportunities to challenge at the front.
Las Vegas shares several characteristics with Baku, particularly its long straights and relatively low tyre degradation. Given Red Bull’s strong Azerbaijan performance, the Nevada street circuit could offer another opportunity.
Mexico City is another interesting venue because of its extreme altitude. Power-unit performance becomes especially significant more than 2,000 metres above sea level, and Red Bull’s Honda powered cars have historically performed strongly in those conditions under previous regulations.
The remaining calendar also includes Singapore, Austin, Brazil, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, providing a broad mixture of circuit characteristics.
That variation could make Verstappen competitive on some weekends and less threatening on others.
Russell has revived his challenge
Verstappen’s growing presence arrives just as Russell has revived what appeared to be a fading championship bid.
The British driver produced arguably his strongest weekend of 2026 in Azerbaijan, topping two practice sessions, taking pole by more than eight tenths and converting it into his third victory of the season.
Russell has admitted he struggled to adapt to Formula 1’s new generation machinery earlier in the campaign but believes changes made since the summer break have helped him rediscover confidence.
There are still 208 points available, meaning Russell needs to outscore Antonelli by an average of 8.25 points per round to erase the current 66 point deficit before considering countback scenarios.
That remains a sizeable challenge.
Antonelli has won eight Grands Prix compared with Russell’s three and has been remarkably consistent throughout most of his second Formula 1 season.
But Baku demonstrated how quickly a championship margin can change.
Verstappen could determine where the points go
Ultimately, Verstappen does not need to become champion himself to have a major say in who does.
A Red Bull victory could remove 25 points from the maximum available to both Mercedes drivers. A second place between Antonelli and Russell could alter the championship margin by several points. A battle at a race start or Safety Car restart could change the entire shape of a Grand Prix.
And if Hadjar continues performing at the level demonstrated in Azerbaijan, Mercedes could occasionally find themselves dealing with two Red Bulls rather than one.
Antonelli remains in the stronger championship position, while Russell’s Baku victory has kept the contest alive.
Verstappen, however, has suddenly become the unpredictable element between them.
After coming within two-tenths of victory in Azerbaijan and with Red Bull showing signs of genuine progress, Max Verstappen could spend the final eight races doing something he has rarely experienced during the past five seasons not fighting for the championship himself, but potentially helping decide who wins it.
